Please use this review sheet as a check-list for terms and ideas that we’ve covered so far. Remember, the exam will have multiple choice, and true-false questions that you will need to answer from this material.
Good Luck and Happy Studying!!
Dr. R.
Main Environmental Problems
Overpopulation, Water Shortages, Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss, Poverty, Malnutrition, Disease
Rapid population growth, Unsustainable resource use, Poverty, Poor Environmental Accounting, Ecological Ignorance
Environmental Sustainability
“Tragedy of the Commons”
Garrett Hardin
The Global Commons
The Day After Tomorrow – Video and Intro to Global Warming-Climate Change
The Discovery of Global Warming
Time Line
Joseph Fourier
JohnTyndall
Svante Arrhenius
Thomas C.Chamberlin
Milutin Milankovitch
George Callendar
Roger Revelle
Charles Keeling - “Keeling Curve”
Ice Ages
Cause of Ice Ages
Solar variability
Variability of Earth’s orbit characteristics – orbital perturbations
Eccentricity = distance from sun
Obliquity = tilt variation of axis of rotation
Precession of equinoxes – orbit changes
Milankovitch Cycles
Ocean Conveyor Belt
Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels
CO2 in the atmosphere
Data from Wood’s Hole Oceanographic Institute - Great Ocean Conveyor Belt
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/abruptclimate_dayafter.html
Climate Change – Notable Examples from Human History
Vikings, Ancient Maya, Tambora Volcano in
Evidence for past climate change
Ice cores, sediments, etc. - graphs
The Climate Machine
What is Climate?
What controls the Climate Machine?
Modeling Climate
Greenhouse effect concept
Causes of Climate change
Weather and Climate
Global Average Temperature
Solar Illumination on Planet Earth
Earth’s Energy Source - Sun
Albedo
Earth’s average Albedo
Heat Capacity
Solar Insolation
Earth’s Energy Balance
Sunlight absorbed = Heat radiation emitted
Blackbody assumption (p.52-3)
A Blackbody absorbs and emits radiation “perfectly”, that is it is a perfect absorber and a perfect emitter
absorptivity (α) and emissivity (ε) both equal 1
Plank’s Radiation Law
Can determine various parameters of a blackbody once the temperature is know
Simple Climate Equation
Greenhouse effect
Energy in – Energy out
Clouds and Radiation
Clouds contribute to the Greenhouse effect by absorbing and emitting heat
Low-level clouds tend to produce net cooling
High-level clouds tend to produce net warming
Clouds as a Thermostat?
Negative Feedback
Clouds moderate warming
Positive Feedback
Clouds enhance warming
Earth’s Energy Reservoirs
Atmosphere, Land Surface, Land Subsurface, Surface Oceans, Deep Oceans
Earth’s Energy Budget and Rapid Temperature
Change
The Ice Reservoir - Cryosphere
Ice Importance
Climate forcing
Any mechanism that can cause climate variation
Causes of Climate Variability
Internal/External Variability
Summary of the Climate Machine
The Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Warming Potential (GWP)
Greenhouse Gases
Top 10 CO2-Emitting Countries
Increasing CO2 – Know stats
What is the cause?
Fossil fuels: 73%
Deforestation: 25%
Cement production: 2%
How much CO2 ? - by country
When will CO2 double
Rule of 70
Causes of increase?
Steam engine/Indus. rev.
Global atmospheric concentrations of 3 Greenhouse Gases - graphs
Methane, CO2, Nitrous Oxide
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature Change
Carbon Cycle
Global CO2 Reservoirs
Atmosphere, Land, Biosphere,
QUESTION: If generate excess carbon by burning fossil fuels, how do global carbon reservoirs respond?
Global CO2 Reservoirs
“Missing Carbon?”
Examples:
http://www.env.duke.edu/news/nr-highcarbon.html
Methane
stats
Where does CH4 come from?
Methane Sources-Sinks
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
stats
Nitrous Oxide Sources-Sinks (p.378)
Nitrogen Cycle
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
stats
Important qualities of CFCs
Halocarbons
Harms
http://www.epa.gov/docs/ozone/index.html
Ozone
Greenhouse Warming Forecasts
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/
Is Global Warming Happening Now??
Joint Science Academies Statement:
Global Response to Climate Change” (June 7, 2005)
http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf
Greenhouse Warming Forecasts
If atmospheric CO2 doubles, then . . .
Sea-level Rise – ex. underwater caverns,
Thermal expansion of Oceans
Rainfall & Drought
Crops
Climate Models and the Temperature Feedback Parameter
General Circulation Models (GCM)
Simple Model of Energy Balance - know
Equilibrium temperature
Effects of sources and sinks (reservoirs) for material (ex CO2)
Reasons for uncertainty
Energy flow
Climate Models and the Temperature Feedback Parameter
CO2 Warming Scenarios
Fig 12.12, p 391
The Complete Greenhouse Menagerie
Climate Models and the Temperature Feedback Parameter – web handout
1. Variations in solar activity
2. Changes in the hydrosphere & cryosphere
3. Chemical interactions and the oxidative state of the atmosphere
4. Sulfate aerosols and dust
5. The CO2 fertilization effect
6. Changes in forest carbon
7. Changes in soil organic matter
8. Ocean feedbacks
9. Overall climate carbon cycle feedbacks
10. The human dimension
Global Warming - Four schools of thought have emerged creating controversy over action:
Do nothing.
Do more research before acting.
Act now to reduce the risks from climate change brought about by global warming.
Act now as part of a no-regrets strategy.
Why so much uncertainty about data?
Answer: Natural Variability, Spatial Heterogeneity, Complexity of System – Pos/Neg Feedback, Confidence in Proxy Measurements, Scale of Observation
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/emission.htm#brochure
“As of 13 December 2006, 168 states and regional economic integration organizations have deposited instruments of ratifications, accessions, approvals or acceptances.”
(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC)
The total percentage of Annex I Parties emissions is 61.6%.
Minimum necessary to activate accord was 55%.
Economists and policymakers
LDC do not have to cut emissions until a later date.
Article 3
1. “The Parties agree . . . “to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.
2. Each Party included in Annex I shall, by 2005, have made demonstrable progress in achieving its commitments under this Protocol.
Article 5
1. Each Party included in Annex I shall have in place, no later than one year prior to the start of the first commitment period, a national system for the
estimation of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the
Article 6
1. For the purpose of meeting its commitments under Article 3, any Party included in Annex I may transfer to, or acquire from, any other such Party emission reduction units resulting from projects aimed at reducing anthropogenic emissions by sources or enhancing anthropogenic removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in any sector of the economy
Carbon Trading Markets - Future or Now
EU emissions trading - (Brochure)
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/emission.htm#brochure
http://www.chicagoclimatex.com/
Article 25
1. This Protocol shall enter into force on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990
Who signed in 2005? --
Montreal 2005 UN Climate Change Conference
Adoption of the Marrakech Accords
considered the “Kyotorulebook” allowing the formal implementation of the Protocol to proceed.
Climate Predictions
Climate Sensitivity
Is the amount of warming we can expect to occur when there is a change in the factors that control climate
Is the expected warming that will occur in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels from their pre-industrial level (280ppm).
Equilibrium climate sensitivity
Estimated at 3° C if CO2 levels reach 560ppm.
At current rates of fossil fuel burning, CO2 will double by 2050.
Climate Warming
Greatest warming will take place over the polar latitudes of the northern hemisphere
due to positive feedbacks associated with melting sea-ice.
Greater warming is projected for land masses than for ocean surfaces
due mostly to water tending to warm or cool more slowly than land.
Greater warming will be in the northern hemisphere because of its higher proportion of land mass to ocean (compare s. hem)
Climate change, in the absence of mitigation policies would in all likelihood lead to:
1. Possible disappearance of sea ice by the latter part of the 21st century
2. Increase in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation
3. Increase in tropical cyclone intensity
4. Decrease in water resources due to climate change in many semi-arid areas, such as the
5. Without mitigation future temperatures in
6. Approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degrees.
According to the IPCC-2009
• The IPCC has clearly specified that if temperature increase is to be limited to between 2.0 and 2.4° C, and global emissions must peak no later than 2015.
• That is only six years from now.
• But the 2.0° ceiling would lead to sea-level rise on account of thermal expansion alone of 0.4 to 1.4 meters.
• This increase added to the effect melting of snow and ice across the globe, could submerge several small island states in the Caribbean, those in the South Pacific and the
Precipitation
Projected poleward shift in the jet streams of both hemispheres may cause:
Increased winter precipitation in polar and subpolar regions
Decreased precipitation in middle latitudes
Poleward expansion of the tropical Hadley circulation patter will cause:
Decreased precipitation in the subtropics
A warmer atmosphere will cause:
Increased precipitation near the equator
Global Warming and Oceans
Process for Sea-Level Rise and Global Warming
Sea-Level Rise – stats from new IPCC report
What would a 1-meter sea-level rise do in the
1-meter sea level rise means a shoreline retreat of 1 kilometer!
Predicted sea-level rise is between 0.5m and 1.2m (1.6 ft and 4ft) by 2100.
NOTES
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